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Posts Tagged ‘NVLT’

Disclaimer: Do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions. You must assume I am biased with every idea presented on this website.

Novelos Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the treatment of cancer. The lead candidate, NOV-002, is currently in Phase III development for lung cancer under a Special Protocol Assessment and Fast Track.

Recent Headlines

NVLT is currently trading at a market capitalization of approximately $114mm with 64mm shares outstanding. See the Google Finance description HERE.

The story with NVLT is strictly a catalyst one. They’re currently in a Phase III clinical trial for a non-small cell lung cancer therapy. The goal of this trial is to increase longevity without increased toxicity. An in-depth overview of the trial can be found HERE. Basically, the primary endpoint in survival is 12.5 months vs 10 months. Full enrollment of 840+ patients was reached in March 2008. While nothing concrete can be extrapolated from this, if we look at the numbers we see the following:

  • 840+ patients enrolled as of March 2008.
  • 725th event (death) just occurred recently
  • Taking the final group of enrollees from March 2008, we fast forward to the 725th event which just happened. The time frame between the two is in excess of 18 months. Again, take with a grain of salt since we have no actual data yet and there could have been an aberration in the data, but this is something I view as being worthy of optimism.
  • Read THIS ARTICLE which discusses Pfizer’s decision to stop their own trial and offers some color on NVLT

I believe the reward/risk is worthwhile here as the odds seem to be pointing in the direction of a favorable outcome.

Below is a 6-month daily and 2-year weekly chart. NVLT ran up significantly on the recent recognition that their trial was still ongoing, which implied the patients were living longer than expected. Since then it has come under pressure and at the moment is in a definitive downtrend. However there is support at the $1.70-$1.75 level. Everything hinges on the data results from the trial.

Date of Idea: January 17, 2010

Price at Idea: $1.77

Target Profit Exit: $5.00+

Loss Exit:$1.00

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