Posts Tagged ‘biotech’

Disclaimer: Do your own research prior to making any investment/trading decisions. You must assume I am biased with every idea presented on this website.

GenVec, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapeutic drugs and vaccines. Their lead candidate (TNFerade) is currently in a pivotal, Phase III clinical study in locally advanced pancreatic cancer.

Recent Headlines

Click HERE to view a recent presentation from the Biotech Showcase 2010 in San Francisco, California. This is well worth your time and provides insight into the first set of interim data as well as the overall direction of the company.

GNVC is trading at a market capitalization of $185mm with 106mm shares outstanding. As of 09/09 the company had a book value of $11.6mm with $13mm in cash. Realistically this information is not very pertinent to the investment story of this particular name, but it is still good to know.

The story with GNVC rests on the success or failure of TNFerade in the short term. If the Phase III trial’s second set of interim results show positive indications for pancreatic cancer, there is immense upside potential. If the trial is a failure, one would easily lose a significant portion of their investment virtually overnight.

GNVC has already seen interim data from the first 1/3 of the Phase III trial which showed results worthy of optimism. However it should be noted that the sample size was small enough not to be necessarily significant. As we receive the second set of interim results over the next 10-12 weeks the picture should become much clearer. However with this first set of data I believe the reward/risk ratio being presented is a solid one.

Below is a 6-month daily and 2-year weekly chart. GNVC recently broke out from the uptrending channel on the daily chart and is now showing very strong support following its recent runup. This is all due to optimism concerning the upcoming interim analysis on the TNFerade trial.

Date of Recommendation: January 17, 2010

Price at Recommendation: $1.74

Target Profit Exit: $5.00+

Loss Exit:$0.95

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